Still more incompetence and another debacle

Most could see the problems with the PKK coming and many could see a way to avert them. Unfortunately none of those people were in the Bush administration' State Department.
A Missed Moment In Iraq

The Bush administration has only itself to blame for the quandary it faces with Turkish forces poised to intervene in northern Iraq. The Turks want to retaliate against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whose insurgents killed 12 Turkish soldiers Sunday. A massive retaliation would be a major misfortune for Turkey, Iraq and the United States.

First, it would undermine the stability of the only part of Iraq where the United States is welcome. Second, it could plunge Turkey into an Iraq quagmire of its own.

Sadly, this crisis was predictable and predicted. U.S. officials have long known that a Turkish incursion was just one terrorist event away. As tensions mounted, the administration had numerous opportunities to engage in preventive diplomacy. A combination of lack of imagination, incompetence and sheer lack of knowledge at the State Department has caused this impasse. To make matters worse, on Tuesday the department tried to shift the blame to the Iraqi Kurds, expressing unhappiness over their inaction.

A missed opportunity

The irony is that both Iraqi Kurds and the AKP government directly or indirectly signaled the Bush administration that they were interested in a deal. I know that senior Iraqi Kurds have forwarded ideas to U.S. officials. The AKP, on the other hand, sought to test the waters first by sending its intelligence chief two years ago to talk to the Kurds -- something the government is loath to do officially -- and by organizing a private meeting this year between the Kurdish Regional Government's prime minister, Nechirvan Barzani, and then-Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. The chief of the Turkish general staff, Yasar Buyukanit, who in a fiery speech warned the government not to talk to the KRG, scuttled Gul's meeting.

The Bush administration missed an opportunity when it failed to see and support the desire for such dialogue and use its good offices to construct a "grand bargain" between the Iraqi Kurds and Ankara. At minimum, such a bargain would have required the Iraqi Kurds to dislodge the PKK from Iraq and for the Turks to offer guarantees on trade and security to the Iraqi Kurds.

For the United States, this would have meant the consolidation of northern Iraq; paradoxically, a Kurdish north at peace with Turkey is the best antidote to separation from Iraq. In short, this would have been a winning situation for all.

The best the administration can hope for now is to persuade the Turks to engage in a limited cross-border military operation. That might contain public anger and assuage a vitriolic press.

The only other thing to hope for is bad weather. With the onset of winter and dwindling military activities, Washington will perhaps have the diplomatic window of opportunity it almost closed. Three years late, it will be much harder to succeed.

Of course we are dealing with a State Department headed by Condoleezza Rice - the most incompetent National Security advisor in history who became the most incompetent Secretary of State in history. She has zero respect and credibility in the world so don't expect this or any other "diplomatic" efforts to be successful until 2009.

(Cross posted at OOIBC)

Still More on Pelosi's dangerous folly

I discussed Nancy Pelosi's misguided and dangerous resolution condemning the massacre of Armenians here and here. I also expressed some disappointment that more people on the left had not been critical. Well this morning Steve Soto weighs in:

I must have missed something, but when did the Armenian genocide become Topic A for the House Democratic leadership, at a time when we shouldn’t be pissing on Turkey and at a time when the House Democratic leadership can’t seem to focus on the here-and-now? I have no idea why Nancy Pelosi hasn’t stepped in to tell the Adam Schiffs, the Brad Shermans of her party as well as slugs like GOP hack Joe Knollenberg to go away and think about our mission in Iraq instead of scoring points for Armenian Americans. I agree with John Murtha and yes, the White House that this isn’t the time for raising this issue once again, unless you are more concerned about pleasing an interest group here at home than you are about helping to get our troops out of Iraq or being hell-bent to tweak the Turks.

Meanwhile is appears that Support Wanes in House for Genocide Vote

WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 — Worried about antagonizing Turkish leaders, House members from both parties have begun to withdraw their support from a resolution supported by the Democratic leadership that would condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century ago.

Almost a dozen lawmakers had shifted against the measure over the last 24 hours, accelerating a sudden exodus that has cast deep doubt over the measure’s prospects. Some representatives made clear that they were heeding warnings from the White House, which has called the measure dangerously provocative, and from the Turkish government, which has said House passage would prompt Turkey to reconsider its ties to the United States, including logistical support for the Iraq war.

Until today, the resolution appeared to be on a path to House passage, with strong support from the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California. It was approved last week by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But this evening, a group of group of senior House Democrats had made it known they were planning to ask the leadership to drop plans for a vote on the measure.

At least a few Democrats have more common sense than the inept Speaker.

Iraq Today

And the news just keeps getting better.
First of course the Iraqi Parliament in the "secure and fortified green zone" was bombed killing eight including three members of parliament. This was shortly after a suicide truck bomb collapsed the Al-Sarafiyah bridge in Baghdad killing ten.
But even more disturbing is this:
Turkish Army Seeks OK for Iraq Raids

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Turkey's military asked the government Thursday to approve attacks on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, signaling growing frustration over a lack of action against the guerrillas by Iraqi and U.S. forces.

Such action could put an overstretched U.S. military in the middle of a fight between two crucial partners, the Turks and the Iraqi Kurds. A recent surge in Kurdish attacks in southeastern Turkey has increased the pressure on Turkey's military to act.

``An operation into Iraq is necessary,'' Gen. Yasar Buyukanit told reporters.

Buyukanit said the military already has launched operations against separatists in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeastern region bordering Iraq.

``Our aim is to prevent them from taking positions in the region with the coming of spring,'' he said, adding the rebels generally intensify attacks as melting snow opens the mountain passes.

Recent clashes have killed 10 soldiers and 29 Kurdish guerrillas, Buyukanit said.

Our friend Cernig at NewsHog explains how this puts the Bush administration between a very big rock and a very hard hard place.

Should the Turkish army cross the border, the Bush administration will be forced to choose between two evils. Back the Kurds and they will find themselves in a fight against a NATO ally with a massive military. Back Turkey, even by a diplomatic deal whereby Turkey doesn't attack in return for the US actually doing something about the PKK, and Kurdish Iraq's acceptance of the occupation will literally go up in smoke. Then the Iraqi army has to make the same set of choices, knowing some of their most effective units are manned entirely by Kurdish peshmerga militiamen who were loyal to the PKK before joining the IA. If the US and Iraq choose different sides it would lead to the probability of clashes between them all across Iraq.

And then there is Iran, waiting in the wings, fully aware that if Turkey has the right to invade Iraq in pursuit of PKK terrorists then Iran does too.

As Cernig notes the US military is stretched so thin it really can't do anything about it. Any administration that didn't have it's head so far up it's ass would have seen this coming. Of course we are dealing with the Bush/Cheney cabal here.