New Hampshire Polling

We are into the post mortem as to how the pollsters could have been so wrong about the Clinton-Obama Race. I'm not going to get into the election was hacked version, DHinMI does a good job of debunking that over at DKos.

Three of the pollsters have weighed in - two have reasonable explanations one does not. Let's start with the does not, Andrew Kohut Pew Research Center. In a New York Times OP-ED he blames it almost entirely on the so called Bradley Effect where white voters tell the pollster they are going to vote for a black and then don't. Todd Mitchell of the Democratic Daily does a good job of debunking that one. This is really passing the buck and it seems obvious thaat PEW will learn nothing from this experience.

Both Zogby and Rasmussen have reasonable explanations both of which revolve around the short period between Iowa and New Hampshire, the large number who decided on the day of the election, Hillary's tears and the final debate. That sounds about right I think they left out the impact of the DC pundits reaction to Hillary's tears. Yes, maybe Chris Matthews did give the election to Hillary.

Zogby also mentions something I talked about the night before the elections, the Independents.

We expected that Obama would receive the lion’s share of independents and drain the Republican primary of these voters. It now appears that, perhaps with a sense that Obama had a lock on the Democratic side, independents felt free to vote on the Republican side and reward their hero, John McCain.

I had asked if both McCain and Obama could win in NH because they were both heavily dependent on the Independents.

Rasmussen thinks it might have had something to do with the high turnout and who actually showed up.

The problem may also have resulted from the greatest challenge in polling--determining who will actually show up and vote. This is especially difficult in a Primary Election. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the polling models used by Rasmussen Reports and others did not account for the very high turnout experienced in New Hampshire. Rasmussen Reports normally screens out people with less voting history and less interest in the race. This might have caused us to screen out some women who might not ordinarily vote in a Primary but who came out to vote due to the historic nature of Clinton’s candidacy. The final Rasmussen Reports poll anticipated that 54% of the Democratic voters would be women while exit polls showed that number to be 57%.

The night of the living dead

I'm not normally a big fan of Howard Kurtz but his piece today on the media gasbags and the New Hampshire election is a well documented look at how the....
Media Blew It Again

At the outset, the pundits seemed ticked that their expected story line--an Obama blowout--was failing to materialize.

What about those pre-election polls we all based our blather on?

When the cable networks couldn't predict at 8 p.m. that Hillary Clinton would lose, the commentators began wondering if she would declare herself the Comeback Kid--as her husband did 16 years ago--if she lost by "only" a few points.

As the evening dragged on, the commentators had to consider the possibility that Hillary's "showing of vulnerability," as Tom Brokaw put it, might have helped her, and that Bill Clinton might have boosted her chances after all. In other words, that the coverage had missed the point.

This was delicious. The coverage had been so out of control there was speculation about when Hillary might have to drop out. Polls giving Barack Obama an 8- or 10-point lead were accepted as fact. The news surrounding the former first lady had been uniformly negative for days. She's done everything wrong, Obama has done everything right. She got too emotional in the diner. People just didn't like her. She campaigned in boring prose and Obama in soaring poetry (to use her analogy). Bill was hurting her. A campaign shake-up was on the way. An era was ending. Some pundits were predicting a 20-point Obama margin.

And then the voters actually went to the polls.

The result: Dewey Defeats Truman.

He then documents the "blathering" of the last several months. That includes the death notice for John McCain several months ago and Hillary's death notice just a couple of days ago.

Yes, the real losers in New Hampshire weren't the candidates that lost but the pompous denizens of television and the print media. And what are they saying tonight? Tim Russert says they are side open races - no front runners. Over at FOX the wingnut "all stars" were conceding it might be a race between Huckabee and McCain. Boy that has to hurt.

Why Clinton Won

There are all kinds of theories as to why Hillary won in New Hampshire - women, election fraud and so on. I hope that John Cole got it right:

At any rate, I know this is going to ruffle a lot of feathers, but I think the real reason Clinton won was that she was offering something of substance. Obama is offering lofty rhetoric and “hope.” Clinton has plans. While Clinton’s speeches may not make people swoon and make Kennedy comparisons like Obama, but at some point, this will get old. I don’t know about the rest of you, but when I am hungry, I like the steak and potatoes on the plate in front of me rather than the promise of a multiple course meal named “change.”

I still, at this point, do not know what Obama stands for other than “change” or something “new.” I honestly can not believe he has been able to get away with it this long, and I assure you, he will not in a general election. So that is why, in my opinion, Hillary won. She stands for something- something people can understand and grapple with. Not some lofty rhetoric about change that moistens loins at the American Prospect, but actual policy positions.

I have been saying all along that I thought Obama was an empty suit. Lots of talk about change without telling us what that change is.

A surprise?

Clinton Stuns Obama

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won the New Hampshire Democratic primary in a surprising show of strength after losing the Iowa caucuses to Senator Barack Obama last week.

It looks like Bill Clinton was right when he accused the media of creating an Obama 'Fantasy'.

The media has been building Obama up so they can tear him down. The real losers tonight were the gasbags in the media. Their little plan to sabotage Clinton and anoint Obama backfired. They wanted Obama because they fear Hillary. How do we know that? Because Karl Rove said they didn't. Why do they fear her? Because they can't swiftboat her - they have been doing it for over 15 years and coming up with new dirt is getting really hard. Obama on the other hand is a blank chalk board and swiftboat him they will because it's the only way they can win in 2008.

Bad news for McCain(Updated)

Last night I asked the question, can McCain and Obama both win in Hew Hampshire since they are both depending on Independents for a win? This may be a bad sign for McCain:
New Hampshire Turnout 'Absolutely Huge'

ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly."

Scanlan said that the Secretary of State's office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).

According to Scanlan, the ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary. New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner predicted that 90,000 undeclared voters would vote in the Democratic primary compared to 60,000 voting in the Republican primary.

This could cost McCain the win but it also bodes ill for the Republicans in November if Independents go for the Democrats by a three to two margin.

Update
Well I guess I should have quit while I was ahead. It looks like I may have been right when I suggested that McCain and Obama couldn't both win NH. I just picked the wrong guy.

A last minute question

This is a last minute question concerning the New Hampshire primary; can both John McCain and Barack Obama win? They are both barely in the lead but it would seem they are both depending on the notoriously independent Independent New Hampshire voters who must chose to vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries. If the majority of independents decide to vote for John McCain Hillary wins. If a majority decide to vote for Barack Obama Romney wins. If they split the independent vote will they both win or both lose?