Bush's Poll Numbers

The headline yesterday was Bush's Support Jumps After a Long Decline. But did it? Juan Cole reports that in spite of all of Bush's pep talks in the case of Iraq it has not.

The American public is not in a mood to be swayed by mere speeches or yet more "milestones" like the election in Iraq. All the recent brouhaha has not improved Bush's poll numbers.

As always, it is best to click on the link to poll results, which give a comparison between early December and more recently. A solid majority of 61 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iraq, and his rating on this matter has actually fallen two percentage points since early December. Likewise, more Americans (52%) think going to war in Iraq now was a mistake than thought so two weeks ago (48%).

Half of Americans think neither side is winning, and 9 percent think that the guerrillas are winning. Together, that makes 59% who think that the US is not winning. That is the key point. Bush had to convince them that the US is winning, or has the early prospect of winning. He failed. They don't buy it.

The great publicity blitz and attempt to re-cast the Iraq problem as a resolvable one has fallen flat on its face.

The reason for this failure is the grim reality of ongoing guerrilla war in Iraq, with bombs going off all over the country and assassinations and attempted assassinations.

It's obvious that the election will be the beginning of even more turmoil. The one thing that 80% of the Iraqis can agree on is that they want the US out of their country. And it's started already:
Sunnis Challenge Early Voting Results in Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Sunni Arabs alleged Tuesday that last week's parliamentary elections were fraudulent, especially in Baghdad province, and they said if the irregularities are not corrected, new balloting must be held in Iraq's largest electoral district.

And after a brief hiatus the violence is once again increasing. Let Bush and the Republicans enjoy the latest uptick in the polls, it won't last. Just wait until the first winter heating bills arrive.