The Real Smoking Gun?

First there was the Downing Street Memo and today we have The Sons of the Downing Street Memo, Ministers were told of need for Gulf war "excuse" and Memo: U.S. Lacked Full Postwar Iraq Plan. Are these "Smoking Guns"? What is a "Smoking Gun"?

Smoking Gun:
n. Informal.
Something that serves as indisputable evidence or proof, especially of a crime.

These three memos don't tell us anything that Richard Clark and Paul O'Neal didn't tell us a year and a half ago. The Bush administration had decided to attack Iraq long before 911 and they were manipulating intelligence to justify it. Over at The Left Coaster Steve Soto has a good analysis of The Downing Street Memo and it's children so I'll direct you over there for the details.

Now for what I think is the real "smoking gun". I have thought all along it would not be the deceptions and lies about the war that would bring the Bush cabal down but the fact that those lies, deceptions and incompetence had made us less safe. With that in mind, here is the "smoking gun".
National Guard stretched to the limit

Thrown into a fast-paced new era of fighting insurgents abroad and protecting neighbors from terrorists at home, the Army National Guard is hanging on by its fingertips.

It provides half of the Army's combat power and is the United States' primary terrorism response team. But its battalions are struggling to scrape up enough soldiers and hand-me-down equipment to meet overseas deployment orders. Recruiting has fallen behind, and seasoned soldiers are quitting in frustration.

Internal Guard documents tell the story: All 10 of its special forces units, all 147 military police units, 97 of 101 infantry units and 73 of 75 armor units cannot, because of past or current mobilizations, deploy again to a war zone without reinforcements. The Guard needs a staggering $20 billion worth of equipment to sustain its operations, a bill Washington may balk at paying.

Any new crisis -- a bloody escalation overseas or a series of domestic terrorist attacks -- could find the Guard unable to respond and could put the United States at risk.

The most recent polls show that Americans do not think the war in Iraq has made us any safer; the real turning point will come when a majority finally realize it has made us less safe. The mass paranoia the Bush administration cultivated for political ends may come back to haunt them. It will be the incompetence of the Rumsfeld Pentagon not the lies that will be the administrations undoing.

The shrinking Guard:

Internal National Guard documents show that in December, 86,455 soldiers were available for duty. As of April 30, the number had shrunk to 74,519 soldiers available for global deployment. The current need for National Guard soldiers in Iraq alone is 32,000, and tens of thousands of others are required for missions in 83 countries worldwide.

Two reasons for the squeeze: a shortfall in recruiting and a dramatic drop in the number of active duty soldiers switching to the Guard. In October and November, the Guard missed its monthly recruiting goals by big margins, gaining only two-thirds of the enlistees needed.

During the winter, the Guard boosted its recruiting force to 5,100 by adding 1,400 recruiters. It launched a new ad campaign, authorized bonuses of up to $10,000 and offered other enticements, such as free college tuition in some states.

Still, by the end of last month, the Guard had signed up 9,705 fewer recruits than its goal. On average each month, the Guard is enlisting three of four recruits it needs.

The States are concerned that we are being left uprotected at home.

These difficulties feed a growing national concern about whether the Guard can meet its responsibilities at home.

Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski said heavy use of Guard troops in the Middle East has left the state more vulnerable to wildfires and other natural disasters.

The Pentagon is "using the National Guard to avoid the tough calls on the size of the active Army," Kulongoski said. "This isn't the proper use that we should be making of the Guard."

The Vermont Legislature called for a special commission to study the use of its Guard troops after voters complained in a series of town meetings about Vermont Guardsmen being sent to Iraq.

Ultimately the American people will not see the lies and deceptions but the increased insecurity as a result of incompetence as the crime. The destruction of the National Guard and the military as a whole will be "the smoking gun".

Update
This applies to the question Atrios asked this afternoon.