Losing Ground by pandering to the base

The latest ARG poll has been discussed already by several people who I'll reference later. It contains a number of telling statistics and shows the dangers of Karl Roves attempts to polarize the country for political gain. While the Republican base remains firmly behind the President and the Democratic base remains firmly opposed the most telling number is that Bush has lost the support of over 80% of the independents.

Among Republicans (36% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 84% approve of the way Bush is handling his job and 12% disapprove. Among Democrats (38% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 18% approve and 77% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. Among Independents (26% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 17% approve and 75% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president.

So Why is this? A few thoughts.

• As I discussed yesterday at Running Scared more people, 49%, now think George W. Bush is responsible for the Iraq war that those who think Saddam Hussein was responsible. While Bush was out trying to sell his Social Security piratization things went from bad to worse in Iraq. In spite of evidence to the contrary, all we get from the administration is that they are determined to "stay the course", and the insurgency is in it's "last throes".


• The ARG poll was really about the economy. We get rosy pronouncements from the administration about a strong vibrant economy and how things are improving. A majority of Americans know it simply isn't so. They don't have to be told, they can tell every time they try to balance their checkbooks.


• When the American people didn't buy Bush's line on Social Security for the first time they began to question rather they should buy anything he said. The obvious deterioration of the situation in Iraq didn't help the administration's credibility. It was further damaged by the Terri Schiavo dog and pony show that over 70% of the American people opposed, including many in the Republican base.

Joe Gandelman has some thoughts:

• This reflects fact that during the election campaign Bush and the GOP had the campaign of John Kerry run by the hapless Bob Shrum as a yard stick against which voters could measure their options.


• Since the election there have been several issues that would cause independent voters to defect since they were issues not on their agenda and with goals not the goals of most independent voters: Congressional/White House intervention in the Terri Schiavo case, the nuclear option on judicial filibusters, and continued news coverage involving the White House's stance on various environmental issues and funding/ideological issues related to Public Broadcasting.


• Karl Rove's recent comments suggesting Democrats wanted to call Dr. Phil in to decide how to respond to 911, were not involved in the documented strong bipartisan support given to the White House in 911's aftermath, and that Democrats are pleased when American soldiers die in the field are not the kind of comments that will likely re-attract defecting independent voters.

I think that Joe is right on all counts. George Bush didn't win in November, a really lame John Kerry campaign lost. Part of the problem Bush is now experiencing is he took it as a win and attempted to push some unpopular issues.

Andrew Sullivan blames the Rovians:

The disapproval levels of Independents and Democrats are now indistinguishable, but the Republican bloc is solid. This strikes me as a direct result of the Rove strategy of brutal partisanship, Christianist pandering, and general fiscal and military fecklessness. Some readers have said that my criticism of the administration makes me sound like a liberal these days. Well, from these results, I'm not the only one being pushed by right-wing extremism into opposition.

This too is an accurate assessment I think.

So what now? It's not going to be pretty. Expect the Rovian slime machine to kick into full gear. The only way the administration can hope to come out of this is to make the Democrats look worse. There are indications that it may backfire this time. It is essential that the Democrats are very careful not to give the appearance that they are climbing into the same slimy gutter that Rove resides in. There was nothing inaccurate about what Dick Durbin said about GITMO but he could have avoided the inflammatory references to gulags and the Nazis. Howard Dean should continue to criticize the Republicans but should avoid the Rovian inflammatory generalizations that may inspire the base but turn off everyone else. If you fight Rove using his tactics you will lose.

Related post at Random Fate