November Blow Out?

Yesterday Paul Krugman predicted a big win for the Democrats in November. Charlie Cook says a Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP.

Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.

That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.

Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.

This morning even the Brownshirt cultists over at Powerline are taking a reality break.

Poll Omens Grim

Last night, I wrote a relatively optimistic post about the fundamental strength of the Republicans' position going into the election. Take a look, though, at the poll results from yesterday and the day before, compiled at Real Clear Politics. It's a sea of blue, with the Democratic candidate leading in just about every race for every office, nationwide. The polls can't all be screwy, and if this batch are anywhere near right, they foretell a rout of astonishing proportions. Maybe that's what the voters want; the Republicans have three weeks remaining to focus Americans on the serious issues at stake in the election.

Now I'm not sure what John thinks "the serious issues at stake" are but I doubt they are the same issues that a majority of Americans consider serious.

But of course George W. Bush remains safely in his bubble.