I put Middle Earth Journal in hiatus in May of 2008 and moved to Newshoggers.
I temporarily reopened Middle Earth Journal when Newshoggers shut it's doors but I was invited to Participate at The Moderate Voice so Middle Earth Journal is once again in hiatus.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Don't bust that Obama bubble yet!

Yesterday, my partner in crime Ron took another look at the election landscape and decided that Hillary would be the best bet for the Democratic party. He raises some valid concerns, given that John McCain and the Republican party are already on the attack, saying that Obama lacks experience, is naive, has some questionable ties in his past, etc. However, I still think it's a bit too soon to be throwing the baby out with the bath water.

One thing that Ron and I have come to agree on is that it is important to elect the Democratic nominee this November. My own personal reasons center on bringing the Iraq debacle to a close and preventing a further drift to the right on the Supreme Court. However, I still think that a key factor is electability. Ron correctly points out that, by annointing John McCain (who I respect and admire) the Republicans have unwittingly selected the most electable candidate much to the chagrin of their rabid base. Had Romney or Huckabee been the nominee, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The Democrats could nominate Roy Rogers' stuffed horse Trigger and probably win. But with Big Mac leading the charge, the Dems face a challenge.

McCain fails to inspire the GOP base, to put it kindly. Barack Obama has already shown that he is turning out voters at an unprecedented rate in red and blue states alike. Hillary is, ironically, McCain's one great hope as I see it. As much as the GOP base may dislike John, they hate the Clintons far, far more. The prospect of another Clinton in office could be exactly what is required to turn out the Republican vote this November in numbers sufficient to put McCain over the top. Are they that angry at Obama? I would say they don't know him well enough and won't have time to build up that level of hatred by the fall.

Hillary, on the other hand, has a hard ceiling in votes. It seems inconceivable that she could garner more than 51% of the popular vote tops. Obama may have a lower floor, but he certainly seems to have a higher ceiling. Yes, we are rolling the dice on this one. Obama has not been as fully vetted yet, and certainly a lot of the Right wing attack machine has been keeping their powder dry against Obama as long as he was an underdog. They may pull out some October surprises we haven't determined yet, if he's the nominee. But the devil we know, in Hillary Clinton, is already too well known. We know what the attacks will be and they will stir the GOP base to rally behind McCain for simply not being a Clinton.

I think it's time to give Obama a chance to go off the reins, run free, and see how far he can take it. If Hillary fails to take Texas in March, I feel her run is basically done. Now is the time to get ready for the attacks on Obama and get him ready for the long, hard slog ahead to the November showdown. He will stand at a podium against a very old, often angry, John McCain and - with luck - shine up like a new penny. And he will bring the voters out in droves. Give the man a chance. I think he just might take the whole damn shooting match.