I put Middle Earth Journal in hiatus in May of 2008 and moved to Newshoggers.
I temporarily reopened Middle Earth Journal when Newshoggers shut it's doors but I was invited to Participate at The Moderate Voice so Middle Earth Journal is once again in hiatus.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Clinton Poll Slide

A recent Zogby Interactive poll shows Hillary has slid in polls matching her with possible Republican candidates in the Nov 08 election, and the slide is bad enough that she' behind the top 5 Republican candidates. Reuters reporting also shows Edwards and Obama (I alphabetize because I haven't picked -other than not Hillary) still leading all Republicans. There are those who will wail right wing demonizing, that's not the case, the harm is two fold, the left base is gagging and the Independents want something new. It isn't the dirty stuff the Republicans pull on Democrats; if it were, the Edwards and Obama polling would show it, and both have been Republican targets, some of it darn dirty. Hillary's high negatives are no secret and quite frankly some of those in that group aren't there for good reasons, but she is not something new, she is DC central all over again. She keeps stating that her positions for years make her a good progressive, the problem is that when it was just talk as First Lady that's what we heard, but when it was 'real' as a Senator, things changed.

I don't dislike Hillary because the Republican dirt machine convinced me of anything, it may have increased my affection for her, her record and her associates persuade me she's old bad news. The media in their frenzy to have a horse race analysis of the Primary and to anoint a Hillary presumptive failed to look at the numbers in an analytic manner. Yes Hillary has led the Democratic field, but not with majority numbers, rather a "horse race" first which looks at politics as though highest number means winner. First in the 40% bracket with 6 other candidates doesn't mean you win, it means 60% back somebody else, even when that person is lagging and written off by the media. Looked at from the Democratic electorate position rather than the 'neutral' media position that means that a large piece of the 60% are in the anybody whatever other than Hillary. Looking at the high negatives that may mean that almost the entire 60% will go elsewhere. Her slippage against the other Democrats bodes ill with these numbers coming up, enough Hillary supporters are only there due to her perceived strength against a Republican and her name recognition that slippage may turn into plummet.

The Hillary inevitability looks even worse with the delegate apportionment of the Democratic Primary, she can't take the convention without 50+% and that leaves those left standing to horsetrading and Hillary even without these kinds of H/Republican numbers might not have any trading goods with these folks. Edwards would not trade delegates for another VP slot, I don't believe he much liked it the last time and certainly not as Hillary's VP, Obama might think about it, but teaming with Edwards would probably be more attractive, even as a higher delegate count VP in the face of Hillary VP. Richardson is a huge question mark, but he's staying in at this point despite lagging badly and Hillary's best offer may not be able to best E&O. The very bottom tier will have its desires to be met, and in their case Hillary is the least likely to have what they want to offer to them.

I've been saying this stuff for some time, these new poll numbers make it look a bit more likely. I'm no seer and I'm also not some nationally recognized political analyst but I think there's not much wrong with this.

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