Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Oregon Primary Election-National Implications?
Oregon had a primary election yesterday. There were high profile races for governor on both the Republican and Democratic sides. The news is not the races but the voter turnout. It will probably turn out to be at least 10% less than the last off year primary. This makes the results of the Republican governors race even more surprising. Ron Saxton, a Portland lawyer beat long time Republican operative Kevin Mannix. Mannix is the favorite of the Radical Christian wingnut Republican base. The conventional wisdom was a low voter turnout would favor Mannix because historically the wingnuts were more likely to vote. Instead the more "moderate" Saxton won by over 10%. Does that indicate that the wingnuts didn't vote? Keep in mind that Oregon is all vote by mail. Your ballot comes in the mail about two weeks before the election and you mail it in or drop it off at one of many locations. Does this represent a pattern that may be repeated in November?