There is a timetable, part II

As a follow up to the post below we have this from the LA Times, U.S. Starts Laying Groundwork for Significant Troop Pullout From Iraq.

In a departure from previous statements, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said this week that the training of Iraqi soldiers had advanced so far that the current number of U.S. troops in the country probably would not be needed much longer.

President Bush will give a major speech Wednesday at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., in which aides say he is expected to herald the improved readiness of Iraqi troops, which he has identified as the key condition for pulling out U.S. forces.

Of course the Iraqi army is not anywhere near being ready to take over but a timetable is being set by the American people as the 2006 elections approach and :

Some analysts say the emerging consensus might have less to do with conditions in Iraq than the deployment's long-term strain on the U.S. military.

[.....]

The shift in the administration's attitude also may reflect concern that the U.S. military can't bear the current strains indefinitely. Some analysts believe the potential long-term damage to the armed forces, not political pressure, could be the decisive factor for Bush and his advisors.

I suggested here that when John Murtha made his call for withdrawal he was channeling the Pentagon. The officers in the Pentagon have to be the first to see what the war in Iraq is doing to the armed services.

Andrew Krepinevich, a former Pentagon official who heads the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent defense research group in Washington, argues that these strains have become a key factor informing administration thinking.

Unlike the Vietnam era, when the military had a nearly endless supply of draftees, the Iraq experience has sharply reduced the flow of recruits into the volunteer armed forces and attrition rates are alarmingly high, Krepinevich noted.

[.....]

"I think the administration will yield to the reality of an Army that is apparently beginning to buckle under the strain of these long-term deployments," Krepinevich said.

But is the Iraqi army ready?

Although some Iraqi units have sharply improved their capabilities, said Gary J. Schmitt, director of advanced strategic studies at the American Enterprise Institute, "to get a force that is really effective requires a lot more experience than this army is likely to have for years."

Schmitt says the administration's new signals are significant but believes that Bush has yet to resolve an internal debate between those aides who are pushing for a withdrawal to relieve domestic political pressure and others who fear that departure would cut short a successful undertaking that will create a large part of Bush's legacy.

Iraq will be Bush 43's legacy alright but not the one he and Karl had in mind.

Note
Jazz has some further analysis above. There is a timetable (Part III)

Technorati Tags

withdrawal, Bush, Iraq, Murtha