I put Middle Earth Journal in hiatus in May of 2008 and moved to Newshoggers.
I temporarily reopened Middle Earth Journal when Newshoggers shut it's doors but I was invited to Participate at The Moderate Voice so Middle Earth Journal is once again in hiatus.

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Moderates, Not Moralists

Though he's often a bit obtuse, I highly recommend E.J. Dionne's editorial in today's wapo. He's talking about how Bush managed to win not because there is a conservative majority in this country, but because he swayed enough of the moderate plurality without alienating his base. Kerry took, in essence, every liberal in the country. Bush took just about every conservative. Neither of those groups, however, comprise anything close to a majority. 34% of registered voters identified themselves conservatives this year, 21% as liberals, and 45% as moderates. Whoever wins the moderate vote holds the world in the palm of their hand.

These numbers do not lend themselves to a facile ideological analysis of what happened. The populist left can fairly ask why so many pro-government, anti-corporate voters backed Bush. The social liberals can ask why so many socially moderate and progressive voters stuck with the president. The centrist crowd can muse over the power of the terrorism issue. The exit polls found that perhaps 10 percent of Al Gore's 2000 voters switched to Bush. Of these, more than eight in 10 thought the war in Iraq was part of the war on terrorism.

Everyone should notice that the Bush campaign knew it could not win without moderates. When Karl Rove went after the red-hot right-wing vote, he did so largely through person-to-person contact, mailings and conservative talk-meisters. Bush always spoke in code to this group -- he talked of a "culture of life" far more than he did about abortion -- reducing the risk of turning off the middle.


He leaves us with one more thought which I find to be a memorable quote:

"Ours is not a right-wing country. An alternative majority is out there, waiting to be born."

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous8:46 AM

    E.J. Dionne's analysis of the presidential election is all very accurate. But the real disaster last Tuesday wasn't Bush's reelection: it was the Democrats' defeat in nearly all the Senate races--and not by moderate Republicans, either. We are now at a point where the Democrats are simply no longer a force in national politics. They're so far behind in Congress that there's no chance of their regaining a majority in either house--or maybe even regaining just enough power to play a role in shaping the legislative agenda--for at least a generation.

    The fact is, we no longer have a functioning two-party democracy in the United States. Of the array of checks and balances that supposedly undergirded the American system of government and promoted constructive compromise, the only institution still standing is the filibuster, and that's just a Senate rule. There will be no more Watergates because a right-wing Congress will never investigate abuses of power by its own right-wing government. The Supreme Court is about to be reconstituted as a compliant organ of right-wing power and to reinterpret the Constitution along reactionary lines.

    And not only have the old checks and balances vanished: a new instrument of repression has been put in place--the Patriot Act--which allows the government to do just about anything it wants to stifle dissent simply by proclaiming its opponents terrorists. At first, of course, the Bush regime will be cautious about using this arrow in its quiver against non-Muslim Americans, but this administration has already shown that it has no qualms about due process when it can get away with trampling on fundamental rights by invoking its "war against terror." And the majority of the population will go along with it. The same majority that believes Sadaam had ties to Al-Qaeda will be brought around to believe that anyone who opposes the Bush regime too agressively does, too.

    A slight majority of the electorate has presented a blank check to the extreme right to transform the country radically into a bastion of authoritarian, oppressive laissez-faire capitalism.

    We are sliding into a new period in American history, a period that will be like the long, corrupt rule of the PRI in Mexico.

    Of course, Americans will go on congratulating themselves on their "freedom" and "democracy."

    Bill in DC

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