We discussed When is winning losing and losing winning? a few weeks ago and 5 days before the election it's time to revisit that. Consumer confidence is in the low 90's, Bush's re-elect numbers are below 50 and the economy in the mid west swing states is still terrible. There is no way Bush should be able to win.
If Bush does win about half of the population will not think it was legitimate. The mess he has made of the economy and the mess in Iraq will become obvious for all to see in the first 2 years of his second term. The Democrats will retake the House and the Senate in 2006 and you can't discount the possibility of impeachment when that happens. The moderate elements of the Republican party will not have the opportunity to take the party back from the neo-cons, neo-feudalists and the flat earth Christian Right. Bottom line, a Bush win will be a massive long term loss for the Republican party.
If Kerry wins Iraq and the economy will still implode but Kerry will take some if not most of the blame. Moderate Republicans will have a chance to re-take their hi-jacked party. A Kerry win could result in a revitalized Republican party and 2 party system.
Update
I just heard the Guardian's Greg Palast predict that Kerry will win but Bush will be inaugurated.
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