Of course McCain's chances are dependent on what happens in Iraq. As Turkana at The Left Coaster points out there are signs the the "success" of the surge may be starting to unravel.
Anyone still paying attention knows that one of the keys to the relative decrease in violence, in Iraq, has been the unilateral six-month cease-fire, called by Moqtada al Sadr. And he had been indicating that he would continue the cease-fire, when it expires, next month. That could be changing. As the McClatchy Newspapers reported:The real purpose of the surge was to create an atmosphere where the Iraqis could start political reconciliation. There has been none of that. Without that the drop in violence can only be temporary and if Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia ends his cease fire that could happen very quickly putting Iraq on the front page once again.On Friday, a spokesman for Sadr warned that the cleric might not extend a six-month cease-fire by his Mahdi Army militia, which U.S. officials say has contributed to the reduction in violence in Iraq. In a statement, Salah al Obeidi charged that rival Shiite militias have infiltrated Iraq's security forces and that some senior security officials remain in their jobs although they've been charged with human rights offenses.In other words, all the happy talk about the "surge" working may soon come to an end. But it's all been lies, anyway.
"This will force us to reconsider the decision to extend the cease-fire despite repeated public statements in the past that we will," Obeidi said.