DNC, Candidates, States

There is a Primary problem for DNC, the candidates, and potentially the state's delegations. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada were designated as the first Primaries by the DNC and February 5th as the next date. Florida's legislature has moved its primary ahead of that date and Michigan just did so in the face of DNC stating that Florida would lose its delegates.

The Democratic candidates have signed a pledge refusing to campaign in states holding early primaries other than the designated ones. While states have the right to hold their elections when they desire, the political parties control their conventions and are in no way bound by what state legislators decide. There is a difference between what states see as their interest and what the parties see as their national interests. Michigan says that its failing economy deserves and needs attention from the candidates. The Party's interest is in having the campaign season build over time allowing less well financed candidates an opportunity to get their messages out and build support and allowing smaller population states influence in the process.

The DNC and the states will probably have to work out some method of dealing with this mess. The DNC will not disenfranchise states, but their punishment may sting, they could easily find their early primaries no more than a beauty contest with the real action happening in party caucuses and if the candidates stick to their pledges those state's hopes for early influence may be blasted.

So far, despite some talk, Oregon is sticking with its May primary date and that can play two ways. Either the contest is over, which one blow out candidate could manage or Oregon becomes very important. In a field as wide as the current one there is a good chance that no one will have locked this up. It is very early days for anointing a winner and there is a good bit of jockeying that could occur and there is quite a bit of money going into Democratic hands.

I do not believe it is in the interest of states to crowd together in early primaries, if the crowd gets sufficiently large candidates will have neither the time nor the money to actively campaign in all those states and some candidates with messages that might truly resonate with a state's voters will be priced out. This is not in the interest of Democratic Party politics and it is not in the interest of having an actual debate before the voters.