It's about to get a lot worse? - Continued

In It's about to get a lot worse? I discussed Brij Khindaria's scenario for the Middle East and the world. It paints a picture of a destabilized Middle East and West Asia. Rick Moran, someone that I don't often agree with but read and respect, left this comment:

Ron:

I've read quite a few scenarios that game out an attack on Iran and I can assure you that this one is off the wall.

This isn't even worse case - it's no case. I don't even know where to begin to dissect this nonsense but here's a good start:

"Terrorists and rogue missiles would strike it from all sides because of its close alliance with the US. Palestinians would use the fog of war to make gains against Israel. If Israel and the US riposte heavily against the Palestinians, pressure from the Egyptian street would force Cairo to get involved."

Palestinians would use "the fog of war?" Wah? What - would the IDF fall asleep? And the only thing that "pressure from the Egyptian street" would lead to is a lot of innocent dead Egyptians.

Look - I have written continuously over the past year that an attack on Iran would be nuts - the downside far outweighing any possible gain. But this is wildly off target. It's shallow, unrealistic, and naive.

I know you didn't write it. And I know you wrote a nice, healthy caveat at the end. But this is pure fantasy - just someone rumninating in the dark after watching a horror movie.

Not going to happen.

Since I have become convinced that the Bush/Cheney administration is going to attack Iran I truly hope that Rick is right. I hope that Kindaria is as wrong as all the rosie scenarios painted by Bill Kristol and the rest of The Weekly Standard crew, as wrong as all the visions of a Democratic wonderland painted by the Bush/Cheney administration. The Iraq war has already further destabilized a region that was inherently unstable to begin with. I'll be the first to admit I don't know enough about Iran to know if it could survive the destabilization that would result from an American attack. I do suspect that Pakistan is very fragile and could fall into the hands of the Taliban and al-Qaeda at any time, nukes and all. Any regime change in Jordan or Syria would not be better than what we have now. Look at Iraq; yes Saddam was a terrible tyrant, but the world is full of those, but would the US be safer today is Saddam was still in power? Most of the time I think the answer is yes.

Is all of Khindaria's take on things correct? No. But there are parts of it that can't be dismissed as fantasy.