Charlie Cook - October 30th

Charlie Cook's National Overview
There Is No Ebb In The Wave
October 30, 2006

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

Of course what Charlie doesn't take into account is the fact that the Republicans will successfully steal some elections. That being said the wave should be high enough that the Democrats should pick up the 15 needed to take control of the House. I think a 3 or 4 seat pickup in the Senate is the best the Democrats can hope for. Taking control of the House is important. The Democrats won't be able to undo any of the damage that's been done but a Democratic House should be able to stop any new outrages. And then of course there are the investigations.

Charlie also points out how important the independents will be. There is a danger that they will be so disgusted they simply won't vote.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.