1914?

At The Washington Post this morning Harold Meyerson wonders if this is how the summer of 1914 felt. He is of course talking about the similarities between what is going on in the middle east today and the run up to World War I in 1914. Bilmon directs us to another 1914 analogy by William S. Lind that is even more alarming. As I said a couple of days ago I think that Israel has gotten themselves into a situation they can't win and Mr Lind agrees. More alarming however is the Iranian card.

The critical question is whether the current fighting spreads region-wide. It is possible that Hezbollah attacked Israel not only to relieve the siege of Hamas in Gaza but also to pre-empt an Israeli strike on Iran. The current Iranian government is not disposed to sit passively like Saddam and await an Israeli or American attack. It may have given Hezbollah a green light in order to bog Israel down locally to the point where it would not also want war with Iran.

However, Israel’s response may be exactly the opposite. Olmert also said, “Nothing will deter us, whatever far-reaching ramifications regarding our relations on the northern border and in the region there may be.” The phrase “in the region” could refer to Syria, Iran or both.

If Israel does attack Iran, the “summer of 1914” analogy may play itself out, catastrophically for the United States. As I have warned many times, war with Iran (Iran has publicly stated it would regard an Israeli attack as an attack by the U.S. also) could easily cost America the army it now has deployed in Iraq. It would almost certainly send shock waves through an already fragile world economy, potentially bringing that house of cards down. A Bush administration that has sneered at “stability” could find out just how high the price of instability can be.

It is clear what Washington needs to do to try to prevent such an outcome: publicly distance the U.S. from Israel while privately informing Mr. Olmert that it will not tolerate an Israeli strike on Iran. Unfortunately, Israel is to America what Serbia was to Russia in 1914. That may be the most disturbing aspect of the “summer of 1914” analogy.

So it's clear what the Bush administration needs to do but will they and in fact can they? Does the Bush administration actually have any control of Israel and even if they do will the crazy neocons, who already unhappy with Bush, let him. Mr Lind's scenario for the probable out come of an Israeli attack on Iran are worth repeating.

If Israel does attack Iran, the “summer of 1914” analogy may play itself out, catastrophically for the United States. As I have warned many times, war with Iran (Iran has publicly stated it would regard an Israeli attack as an attack by the U.S. also) could easily cost America the army it now has deployed in Iraq. It would almost certainly send shock waves through an already fragile world economy, potentially bringing that house of cards down. A Bush administration that has sneered at “stability” could find out just how high the price of instability can be.

This of course would prove to be a political disaster for the Bush administration and the Republicans so it may come down to who dominates the White House, the ideologues or the politicians.