Going it alone on the road to Iran

If/when the Bush administration attacks Iran it has been obvious it will be a lonely coalition. One ally that has been mentioned is Israel. Steve Clemons tells us it ain't necessarily so and in fact the Bush administration may have to go it alone. While the Likudnicks at the American Jewish Committee are pushing for an attack on Iran they do not represent those in power in Israel. Clemons quotes Chris Nelson of the Nelson Report.

In the meantime, the Telegraph "leak" seems to think that US air strikes might be supplemented by the Israeli Air Force. Our sources have consistently maintained that Israel has repeatedly warned the US that it would NOT attack Iran, due to Israel's vulnerability to missiles and terrorism. We reported at the time, two years ago, then-Prime Minister Sharon standing in the Oval Office to warn Bush precisely on this point.

Clemons disagrees with Nelson on the reason for Israel's reluctance to attack Iran. He thinks that Israel simply doesn't think it's necessary at this time.

I do not agree with Chris Nelson's line that the reason for Israel's reluctance to want to attack Iran has much to do with their geographic proximity to Iranian missiles. My point is that Israel has substantial intelligence resources inside Iran telling it that "there is time" to work on sensible solutions. They do not see Iran's nuclear program as an imminent threat. They also believe that there are trends inside Iran that may "deal with" Ahmadenijad.

I think that Israel is making a lot of sense here -- and if we are flying blind and they are not, we should learn from Israel what we can before we trip into a second major global catastrophe that may itself undermine what's left of America's position in the world.

I think even Clemons neglects another factor in Israel's reluctance; they simply don't trust the Bush administration and the Rumsfeld Pentagon to NOT fuck it up. While Israel supported the invasion of Iraq they now see that because the Bush administration screwed it up so badly they are now less secure than they were before.

Read the entire Clemons piece. He has some good information on how all or most of our intelligence assets in Iran were compromised. Yes the neocons golden boy and Iranian spy Ahmed Chalabi was involved.