Some Reality in a Sea of Euphoria

On a day when some cautious optimism is in order we are instead being treated to "I told you so" euphoria from the war/Bush supporters which for the most part is reflected in the reports on the election from the MSM. This report from Reuters has a least one foot of the sea of reality, After sweeping Iraq vote, power wrangles to start. The election and the participation is a step in the right direction but there are many miles to go and many hazards along the way.

Once a coalition government is formed, the first task of the new parliament is to address Sunni grievances over the constitution, passed with Shi'ite and Kurdish votes in an October referendum. Another challenge is building up Iraqi security forces so foreign troops can go home.

The early signs were good on Thursday, with Sunnis turning out in large numbers after most either boycotted January's ballot or were too scared to vote. In Falluja, once one of Iraq's most violent rebel towns in the Sunni western province of Anbar, turnout was around 70 percent, local officials said.

Turnout was also high in Kurdish regions and the Shi'ite south, suggesting that Iraqis had voted in numbers across sectarian and ethnic lines.

Informal polling by Reuters around the country showed the ruling Shi'ite Islamist Alliance and their Kurdish allies still dominant in their southern and northern bases respectively.

But there also seemed to be a strong turnout in favor of former prime minister Iyad Allawi, who heads a secular slate with candidates from across Iraq's sectarian divides and has sought to split the previously dominant Islamist Shi'ite vote.

Negotiations over the shape of a cabinet will offer an indication of how far the new parliament, representing as it will most communities, can generate a workable government that can deliver people's demands for security and prosperity.

Failure and disappointment may well spell violence.

"I'm not over-optimistic," said Iraq analyst Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group think-tank in Amman.

"It's going to be very hard to change the constitution.

"Sunnis have supported this not because they are converted to the electoral process but because they hope for influence to roll back what they see as an Iranian advance in Iraq," he said, referring to Tehran's support for fellow Shi'ite Islamists.

"And if they don't, they're going to go back to what got them here in the first place, the insurgency. And that's going to make it very difficult for American troops to leave."

This is probably the last opportunity for the political solution that is necessary to end the military solution and many questions remain.