Divide and Conquer

Some of us have been engaging in some far too early celebrating as we watch Bush's numbers continue to plunge and national approval for the GOP held congress sliding in a similar direction. There's an unpleasant story out of California this week, though, which should provide a sobering reminder of one key fact. Any time the Democrats can be split up into opposing, single issue groups who fall prey to internecine fighting, a unified Republican front can beat them even when they are in a significant minority.

A Republican state senator sailed to victory Tuesday in a special congressional election in coastal Orange County featuring a maverick, third-party candidate who sought to capitalize on growing fears of illegal immigration.

In a race that drew national attention, Sen. John Campbell (R-Irvine) held a wide lead throughout the evening, ending the night with nearly 45% of the vote. But it was Minuteman Project co-founder and first-time candidate Jim Gilchrist of the American Independent Party who drew the spotlight with his one-issue campaign.

Democrat Steve Young finished second with 28%, and Gilchrist was third with 25%. Both candidates significantly boosted their totals over the October special election, while Campbell gained just 30 more votes.

This is a congressional seat from California, for Pete's sake! Look what happened. A single issue candidate managed to split the Dem's support almost exactly in half, with 53% of the people playing tug of war over two candidates, while the Republican who couldn't must half the voters' support slides in to home with a win. That can happen anywhere, and at any time. Just this morning I put a post up over at Running Scared showing how Hillary Clinton's new pro-war stance and shift to the right may result in a three way Senate race with an anti-war candidate moving into the spotlight for the Democrats. In the very blue state of New York, the popularity of Bush and the GOP is at a nearly all time low, with the Republicans in the middle of a war with the Conservative Party. But even when it looks like all hope is lost for them, they can still potentially find a way to take yet another seat in the Senate (from New York!!!) if the progressives split off into a head butting war among their own ranks.

Say what you will about the Republicans, but for the last ten years they have kept the troops marching in lockstep and that has translated into victory after victory. If the Democrats can't find a way to restore order and get one national agenda that keeps their supporters all on the ranch, they will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yet again.