Is It Happy Peak Oil Day?

Of course we don't know. Peak oil is something we will see in the rear view mirror not the headlights. Kenneth Deffeyes in his book beyond Beyond Oil gave a tongue in cheek prediction of November 24, 2005 for peak oil. The Oil Drum has a graph of oil production since 2002 which show a jagged plateau starting in 2004 with the peak oil production to date in May of 2005. One of the reasons we can't accurately predict the peak is we don't really know how much oil the Saudis and other OPEC members have. Reserves are are a closely held secret and about all we can be sure of is they have less than they say they do. If we are not at the peak we are near it and we will see a jagged plateau period followed by a rather sudden dip in production. Since little or no planning has been done on alternatives to our oil dependence the dip will be disruptive at best. I covered some possible scenarios in July of 2004, Oil, Half Way To Empty. A good summary of Deffeyes' work and thoughts can be found in Grist Magazine.