I'll have my Bush on the rocks

Below Jazz discusses the latest poll from wapo/ABC. A couple of things jumped out at me. The first is not that Americans thought that things were more corrupt under the Bush administration than under the Clinton administration but that the spread was as small as it was. It can only indicate that the American people expect corruption in government and perhaps don't see it as such a big deal. The second thing is that Bush's approval ratings reached a new low. That indicates that the latest "milestone" in Iraq was not considered a milestone. The American people have given up on this war. That brings us to this piece in the Washington Post today, Buffeted With Problems, Bush Must Chart a Recovery.

President Bush's descent from the euphoria of an against-the-odds reelection victory one year ago this week to the current reality of a White House in crisis has been as rapid as it has been unexpected. Presidential advisers and outside analysts say the route back to genuine recovery is likely to be slow and difficult -- and without a clear blueprint for success.

Friday's indictment of Vice President Cheney's chief of staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby dealt another big blow to public confidence in the administration, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Bush's approval rating fell to 39 percent -- the lowest recorded by this poll in his presidency -- and a majority of Americans said the charges signal broader ethical problems in the administration. By a ratio of 3 to 1, those surveyed said the level of honesty in government has declined during Bush's tenure.

With its ability to command public attention and frame the national agenda, the presidency is a supremely resilient institution, and such recent occupants as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton have bounced back from adversity. But Bush faces such a complex set of problems -- an unpopular war in Iraq, high energy prices, the costly challenge of rebuilding New Orleans, a fractured party, disaffected independent voters and little goodwill on Capitol Hill -- that his prospects are particularly daunting.

The article mentions some of the obstacles that Bush faces but leaves out what may be the most important one, the Radical Christian Right, the "base" as Karl Rove sees it. For the last 30+ years they have been willing to accept words without deeds and that worked well for the Republicans. They now expect deeds and those deeds are likely to alienate the other 70% of the Americans. To make matters worse for Rovian politics of the base there is evidence that the Radical Christian base may actually be shrinking. The Robertsons and the Fallwells are not nearly as influential as they once were and the total Taliban like Dobson never had a very large following. As I suggested months ago the downfall started with Karl Rove's major political blunder in regards to the Terri Schiavo debacle. Don't forget that over 50% of those who consider themselves evangelical Christians opposed the government intervention into the life and death of Ms Schiavo.

Yes, the war in Iraq is going badly and the spin is no longer sticking; fuel prices are high and a majority now realize they were left out of the Bush "recovery". But Bush is boxed in by a radical but shrinking "base' of Karl Roves making. While it's true that this administration is not the first to be on the rocks, like Harding and Nixon it won't be the first to not recover. As I said yesterday Reagan was able to recover:

Ronald Reagan had Iran Contra that threatened to bring down his administration. He reacted differently, a complete house cleaning. He got rid of the nut cases that got him into the mess, many of the same characters that have gotten George W. Bush into the mess he finds himself in, and brought in an entire new team.

I don't see that happening in this Bush administration as it would require that he admit mistakes, something that it out of character. And second, Ronald Reagan had a Religious Right that was still willing to settle for words and not deeds.