Stengthening Iran

One of the interesting things about watching the Bush administration (in a maudlin kind of way) is how often it manages to achieve what it says it does not want. Ron and others have ably described how the Iraq War, intended to prevent a nation from becoming a terrorist haven armed with WMDs, had made Iraq into a terrorist haven, at least some of whom may now have WMDs.

It’s especially interesting to see how often the Bush administration creates what it does not want because of oil.

When the Bush administration included Iran in its famous (and to its groupies, legendary) “Axis of Evil” speech in January 2002, the Iranian Government’s prospects were cloudy. A large percentage of the population had been born since the 1979 revolution and had no idea why this Government should have so much to say about the way they lived their lives. The prospect was that young Iranians would gradually throw off the clerics’ social restrictions as more time passed, and then eventually change the political system in a mostly peaceful manner.

But then Bush said that Iran was part of the “Axis of Evil”, and gave the Government there a point to rally its people on. Very few people like being described as “evil”, whether it is true or not. In addition, the Bush administration told the Iranian people that it stood by to help Iranian elements who were willing to take action to achieve their freedom. As always, the Bush administration failed to understand that people often respond first to their ethnic, national, and religious identity and not abstract concepts like “freedom” and “democracy”.

This gave the Iranians the opportunity to marginalize people looking for change as “American stooges”, and point out what happened the last time the USA intervened in Iranian politics. That was in 1953, when the CIA helped overthrow the democratically elected Prime Minister and restore Shah. Even among anti-clerics, this is a very sore subject, as I found out from an Iranian friend more than 20 years ago.

But the biggest boon by far to the Iranian Government has been the Bush’s administration refusal to take any significant action that would decrease the demand for oil in this country, and thus lower its price on the world market.

The rapid increase in oil prices has left the Iranians swimming in money, allowing them to improve the lives of the people in various ways. People are more likely to regard a Government doing these things as being fairly competent, and less likely to want to change it. In elections this summer, the Iranians elected an extreme religious conservative as President, thus turning away from reducing clerical influence. Thus, the failure to do much about oil demand has helped firm up the very Iranian Government that the Bush administration does not want.

Further, this extra money also allows the Iranians to pursue their goal of diversifying their energy sources, and possibly, making nuclear weapons. Not many want this to happen, certainly not me. But it’s hard to see how this is going to be stopped now without a lot of economic devastation for us and the rest of the world.

The USA is threatening to ask for economic sanctions on Iran at the UN. But the consequences of this on us would be profound. Iran’s oil, currently 4% of the total supply, would be removed from the market, driving oil prices much, much higher and requiring some major action here to reduce demand, or else create a meltdown. In addition, the Iranians can bottle up the Strait of Hormuz and prevent other countries’ oil from making it to the world market, and really drive the price of oil through the roof.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your point of view), we are not the only country depending on massive amounts of oil. China is also a big oil customer, and is focused on ways to avoid restiveness in its citizens. So the Chinese will do everything possible to keep the Chinese economy humming. If it ever comes to a UN resolution on sanctions against Iran, I am certain the Chinese will veto it. Perhaps the first person to thank them after the vote should be John Bolton.

So what to do under these circumstances? The USA could continue to pursue its goal of eliminating Iran’s oil from the market, and start rationing gasoline in this country. It would, after all, be an act to respond to the existence of a war, and we could start acting more like people did during a real war, like World War II. But this also seems unlikely. Even if the Bush administration had the political will to suggest this, the American people would not buy it. It would depend on the abstract notion of yet another country with WMDs, who want to harm us. The administration’s credibility is entirely shot with such arguments after Iraq, even if this time they may be correct! American people will hear this and remember the recent projection that Iran’s nuclear weapons are at least 10 years away. They will not accept the need to ration gas.

The truth is that I don’t know the answer to the problem of future Iranian nukes. But I believe that other people might. And I will do everything possible to see that these people get into power, and defeat an administration that causes such profound problems because it does not know how to handle oil issues.