Saudi Arabia, a Threatened Monarchy

The United States and the world depend on the oil from Saudi Arabia. While we have heard a great deal about the death of King Fahd and his successor King Abdullah we have heard little about how threatened the Saudi monarchy is. Germany's Der Spiegel attempts to enlighten us.
King Fahd Leaves Behind a Threatened Monarchy

King Fahd's successor has long been pre-arranged -- his brother Prince Abdullah has been the de facto ruler of the country for ten years. But one can no longer take anything in Saudi Arabia as preordained: The population wants more rights, the oil is running out, terrorism is threatening the government -- and the new king is already 81 years old.

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Unemployment in Saudi Arabia has recently almost reached 25 percent, and the country's oil deposits are beginning to run low. King Fahd, who died on Monday after a long period of illness, was hesitant to face up to the upheaval now shaking the country, and did some to help create it -- an accusation he must leave to his brother and successor Abdullah, who has essentially run the country since Fahd's stroke in 1995, to face. The kingdom is facing a major crisis: Social, religious and political tensions could soon transform into a volcano.

The existence of Saudi Arabia is the result of an alliance between radical Arab theologian Ibn Abd al-Wahhab and Muhammad bin Saud. While the Saudi Monarchy need the oil dollars from the west they depend on the radical Wahhabi branch of Islam to maintain their power. The radical Islamists are highly critical of the Monarchy's relationship with the United States and the Bush family in particular.

Walking the tightrope

Ruling Saudi Arabia had always been a matter of bridging the divide between doctrine and realism. The kingdom is based on the puritanical Wahhabi branch of Islam: modernity is condemned and the words of the conservative and radical clerics carry a lot of weight. At the same time the most oil-rich country of the world can't afford to isolate itself internationally. After Sept. 11, 2001, Saudi Arabia feared that it might find itself on the list of rogue states because 15 of the 19 attackers were Saudis. Maintaining a good relationship with the USA became a question of survival for the monarchy -- but the price of this salvation has been to fall still further out of favor with the Islamists.

As we noted before the al-Saud regime has been forced to clamp down on internal unrest, at least 40 people have been publicly beheaded this year alone, more than during the whole of last year. This unrest will only increase as thousands of Saudi jihadis return from Iraq. There target is the Saudi oil infrastructure which they have been learning how to sabotage in Iraq.

Jazz wondered if Bush would attend King Fahd's funeral. Only if he wants to inflame the opposition to the Saudi Monarchy.