Peak Oil, Iraq and Lawrence of Arabia

Like everything else the United States and Europe have done in the Middle East since the 1920's, the Iraq war was indeed all about oil. I suspect that even the major reasons for the French and the Germans objected to the war was the fear that it would interfere with the flow of oil. Big Gav at Peak Energy(Australia) has a post on what was at stake in Iraq. Lots of facts, figures and blockquotes that I'm not going to reproduce here so head over there. The bottom line is that Iraq has a lot of oil.

So that brings us to T.E. Lawrence. For how Lawrence of Arabia figures into this Big Gav sends us over to Past Peak for T. E. Lawrence On Insurgencies

Lawrence distilled six fundamental principles of insurgency that even today have remarkable relevance.

• First, a successful guerrilla movement must have an unassailable base -- a base secure not only from direct physical assault, but from attack in other forms as well, including psychological attack.


• Second, the guerrilla must have a technologically sophisticated enemy. The greater this sophistication, the greater this alien force would rely on forms of communications and logistics that must necessarily present vulnerabilities to the irregular.


• Third, the enemy must be sufficiently weak in numbers so as to be unable to occupy the disputed territory in depth with a system of interlocking fortified posts.


• Fourth, the guerrilla must have at least the passive support of the populace, if not its full involvement. By Lawrence's calculation, 'Rebellions can be made by 2 percent active in striking force and 98 percent passively sympathetic.'


• Fifth, the irregular force must have the fundamental qualities of speed, endurance, presence and logistical independence.


• Sixth, the irregular must be sufficiently advanced in weaponry to strike at the enemy's logistics and signals vulnerabilities.

Now that sounds a lot like what we see in Iraq to me. Past Peak also notes that Lawrence was the inspiration for the insurgency commanded by North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap who was able to defeat both the French and the US in SE Asia.