The Oregonian Discovers Peak Oil

A little over a year, when very few people we talking about peak oil, I brought you the disturbing predictions of James Howard Kunstler.

"The whole Archer Daniels Midland model of turning oil into corn into Taco Bell—that whole complex, that system, is really going to be over," says Kuntsler. "We're going to be forced to grow more of our food locally and return to a kind of agriculture that really hasn't been practiced here in a long time. A lot of the land that has only had value as suburban development in the past 30 or 40 years is going to have to be reassigned."

A year later there are a number of blogs devoted to the topic, he MSM is discussing it, and even the major oil companies talking about it. Today the Oregonian has not one but two articles on peak oil and is possible impacts. In the first, 'Peak oil' spells cataclysm for U.S., oil theorist warns, the warnings of Kenneth Deffeyes are discussed.

Think high gas prices are bad?

Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:

"War, famine, pestilence and death," he said, eyes wide and voice deep. "We've got to get the warning out."

The threat? Peak oil.

The term, probably unfamiliar to most Americans, refers to the time when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline. From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs less than most bottled water, will be scarcer and more costly.

Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause much of a ruckus.

But Deffeyes says peak oil is coming in November, and could bring humankind to the brink.

Yes, most of the world is still in denial but the facts are getting harder to deny all the time. As Kuntsler describes above, the end of plentiful oil is a lot more than trading the SUV in on a little car with lots of batteries. It's about major life style and economic changes.

In the second article, After the oil runs out, Tim Holt discusses some of those changes. It sounds scary but:

But we shouldn't let the horror stories overshadow the benefits to a society weaned off oil. Sure, we won't be flying off to Paris or Peking, and the transition to other jobs will be a painful. But we'll get stronger communities with neighbors who develop bonds based on mutual interdependence.

By replacing isolating auto travel, walking and bicycling will help build cohesive communities and help trim down an obese population. Streets and neighborhoods will become places people inhabit, not just pass through, adorned with public art and furniture.

Yes, it will be a scaled-down lifestyle with little of the expensive gadgetry and high-paying jobs we've grown accustomed to. A lot of folks, from auto mechanics to corporate executives, may find their skills have become unnecessary.

But more opportunities will arise for people willing to learn skills that meet basic human needs. As we move away from a cheap-fuel, mass-consumption society, we might just find we have more time for each other, our communities and a more healthful relationship to the Earth that sustains us.

If we start planning the transition now, the end of oil might just be one of the best things that ever happened to us.

And Portland, Oregon is getting a jump on things:

Cities, even neighborhoods, will become more self-sufficient. Agriculture will play a heightened role in everyday American life. Cities such as Portland will have to find creative ways to feed their residents.

Rural folks have the advantage of more open space for crops, but, like city dwellers, they'll have to learn how to grow their own food. Farm populations have been decimated by the impact of large-scale corporate farming and the globalization of agriculture. Progress in Portland

The good news is Portland is heading in the right direction. Last June the city completed an inventory of all city-owned land available for cultivation.

Many of us have thought a life more simple would be a good thing for a very long time. Well, it looks like we are about to get a chance to find out.

Note
In case you missed it, Peter Mass has a very long article in The New York Times, The Breaking Point. It turns out we may not really have a clue as to how much oil is left.