Gulf Oil Production

The Oil Drum is back on line and brings us this bad news.

Here are the final GOMEX numbers. They predict that 86% of Gulf oil production is predicted to be cut for less than 10 days, 50% of oil production is predicted to be cut for 10-30 days, and 22% cut for over 30 days. Natural gas is just about as bad (59-29-5). That, folks, is a big deal if it's right, we're talking about a lot of capacity in the gulf. (Ironically, that little jog Katrina took to the NNE at landfall may benefit NOLA, but may be worse for the oil industry, more rig damage and more exposure to the offshore areas of MS and AL)

The loss of refinery capacity is the big one here. Opening up the Stratigic Petroleum Reserve won't help if there is no place to refine it. It will probably be several days before we know the full extent of the damage to the oil infra-structure.