Sunday Morning Middle Earth Journal Report

With the showdown on the Senate nuclear option looming, there's lots of chatter swirling around the blogosphere over this weekend's AP report on the seven GOP Senators who will make or break Frist's efforts to kill the fillibuster. The author is claiming that the Dems have all 44 of their Senators solidly in line, along with Jim Jeffords (I - Vermont) and three Republicans. The three sensible GOP members, (no surprises here) are Lincoln Chaffee (R - RI), John McCain (R - AZ) and the Best Republican Ever™, Olympia Snowe (R - Maine). The seven left up in the air are as follows:

The senators are Susan Collins of Maine, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, John Warner of Virginia, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and John Sununu of New Hampshire.

The Dems need a minimum of three of them to get to the magic number of 51. Two will only get them to a tie, and then Darth Cheney would get to cast the deciding vote in Bush's favor.

Can they get three out of that pack of semi-moderates? Susan Collins is a pretty good bet, and was recently treated rather rudely by the GOP leadership and a number of conservative pundits. Reports I've read in the wapo indicate that she doesn't think she has much "political capitol" to gain from going along with the conservative agenda because she hasn't been getting much in the way of concessions in return, so she's probably a good bet. Specter owes the GOP leadership big time, Hagel talks a good game but usually bends a knee to Bush, and Warner is in pretty much the same camp as Hagel. Alaska has gotten so conservative lately that I can't see Sununu jumping ship. That leaves DeWine and Murkowski, and frankly I don't know enough about either of them to predict whether or not they can grow a backbone on this issue. I still say it's too close to call.

Joe Gandelman speculates that the whole thing could be a ploy for political posturing, and a compromise might already be in the works once all the players get to make their grandstanding speeches.

Another interesting thought: could all of this be an elaborate political ballet on the part of the Demmie and GOPer leadership to eventually reach a compromise that pulls the Senate back from the brink? Remember that if this doesn't go through, conservative Republicans will be bitter. If this does go through, Democrats will be angry and start to find ways to insist that all rules and regulations they can exercise will be used in a way to remind the GOP majority that they're there and won't be steamrolled.

It's possible, but the hard line right wing won't like it a bit. TalkLeft reports a surprise player on this front, saying that Sen. Pat Roberts (R - Kansas) may be getting ready to toss Frist under a truck.

We should know soon enough. But as I said, I'm not ready to put on my Karnak hat and prognosticate. It's a vitally important battle, but it could still go either way. My sense is, however, that Frist is smart enough to test the political waters. He won't take it to a vote unless he knows that he has the 50 votes, so if you see it going to the floor, we've probably lost.