The A380, it can fly but....

At 10:29 AM (CET)on May 27th, 2005 the Airbus 380 took to the air for the first time. There was very little doubt that it would fly, that was determined by hard numbers and engineering. Now the A380 faces a test that is far more uncertain, one that is dependent on the actions of human beings. Not many reliable computer algorithms to predict that. The question this test is to answer is can you get 883 people out of eight emergency exits in 90 seconds? The consequences of failure are huge.

A few seconds too long, and the testers might not give the plane its certificate for passenger service use. The test can be retaken once, but if the plane fails a second time, the number of possible seats has to be drastically reduced. Then, at the very latest, the EADS managers may have to knock their hoped-for turnovers and gains down another notch. A reduced number of seats would make the A380 less attractive to airlines like those in Japan that might plan to use the high-volume plane for short domestic trips -- airlines that Airbus would like to have as clients.

The A380 already has one huge hurdle to overcome; all airports that the A380 serves will have to make major changes to service the plane. A drastic reduction in the number of seats would make the A380 a loser for Airbus and the Europeans.