South of the border

We have discussed the ticking time bomb just south of the border both here and at Running Scared. To summarize the situation the people of Mexico are not happen with the free market (feudalist) economy of President Vicente Fox. With elections approaching Mexico Cities Mayor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, an opponent of "free trade" appears to be the favorite. The existing powers that be in Mexico have disqualified Mr Obrador as a candidate. This has resulted in a very real possibility of major civil unrest if not all out civil war on our southern border.

It appears that this situation has finally gotten the attention of the MSM. Bill in DC sent us this article in the New York Times on a march by hundreds of thousands of Obrado supporters in Mexico City.

[M]EXICO CITY, April 24 - A capital typically clogged with traffic was thronged Sunday by hundreds of thousands of people who marched into the main plaza to protest a government effort against Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador that threatens to force him out of next year's presidential elections.

The police estimated that more than one million people participated in the march. Aides to the mayor estimated that there were 750,000 people. Several political observers described it as the biggest in the country's recent history.

After two weeks of heated political discourse and confusing legal maneuvers, the march was not the first to denounce the government's campaign against the mayor. But it was a dramatic illustration of seemingly growing support for Mr. López Obrador and disappointment in President Vicente Fox.
[.......]
Under most interpretations of Mexican law, Mr. López Obrador, of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution, cannot run for office or be put on the ballot until after a trial, which could take more than a year.

The situation has plunged Mr. Fox's party and his cabinet into open conflict.

On Saturday The Washington Post ran a commentary by someone in Mexico, Rossana Fuentes Berain, managing editor of Foreign Affairs en Español and a professor at the Mexico Institute of Technology, In Mexico, Fears Of a Populist President.

MEXICO CITY -- The Mexican Congress voted recently to strip this city's mayor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of his immunity from prosecution for an allegedly illegal act by his administration -- thus endangering his expected run for president. But of course, this is not the end of the story. Lopez Obrador may well garner enough support for his cause to get on the ticket, raising this question: Is this populist mayor someone to be feared? Is he another Hugo Chavez, who will create turmoil in domestic and foreign affairs while pursuing an agenda of radical change?

Not likely, I would say. Mexico is not Venezuela. State and federal institutions are strong. We also have a more diversified economy and a private sector less dependent on governmental actions. So, even if he is not defeated at the polls, which he very well could be, we in Mexico would do better to learn to live with him than to risk derailing our young democratic process.

It's clear that no politician should be above the law. But the misdemeanor with which Lopez Obrador is being charged (the building of a road in violation of a court order) should not be allowed to trigger a political crisis that could undermine hard-won economic stability.

Although Ms Berain is cold toward Lopez Obrador she recognizes that his disqualification could and probably would result in a massive disruption of Mexico's society and economy.

Lopez Obrador, should he win, is unlikely to join Chavez and Fidel Castro in a sort of Latin American axis of evil. That is so not only for the institutional reasons mentioned above but because of important economic considerations, the most important being the fact that monetary policy in Mexico is set by an autonomous Central Bank whose head, Guillermo Ortiz, cannot be removed.

As for Lopez Obrador's comments about restructuring Mexico's debt (comments that understandably frighten the markets, given the recent Argentine experience), his economic advisers are adamant in maintaining that this would have to do with renegotiating terms rather than with seeking debt reduction.

And her advice for the Bush administration:

And what should the United States do in this situation? Nothing. At least nothing but sit tight and be patient. I know that's hardly within the nature of an activist country, but it's exactly what Washington needs to do.

Something the Bush administration is not very good at.