Some reckless speculation and crystal ball gazing

Some thoughts on the future, not Social Security, not the war in Iraq, not the apparent looming war with Iran but the future political make up of the United States and the 2008 presidential election.

I'll start with a prediction and work backwards. The winner of the 2008 presidential election will receive less than 40% of the vote. We can see the rift forming between the neocons and the theocons and that is likely to only get wider. The libertarians are as unhappy with the imperialist neocons and culturally despotic theocons as the left. Many moderate "Eisenhower" Republicans have already left the party. The Democrats are just about as divided with old left and the Clinton Republicans Democrats fighting for control of the party. In the middle of all this we have a growing and vocal centrist movement. I think it is almost inevitable that the Religious Right will break ranks with the Republican Party by 2008 running their own ticket. The Libertarian party may also draw much better in 2008 than they have historically. I predict that many on the left will be disappointed in the Democratic Party of Howard Dean. As I noted below he received his liberal tag based on opposition to the war alone. The above political sub divisions can be even further divided but I really don't want to get into a discussion that requires political and social calculus.

So what does this all mean for 2008? At least four strong presidential candidates are a very real possibility. I see the existing Democratic Party shifting only slightly to the left, if at all, but certainly not enough to appease the left. I see the existing Republican Party moderating. I see a strong theocratic party on a "moral crusade" and a strong leftist party probably built around the Green Party without Mr. Nader. Where the centrists and Libertarians fall will depend on how much of the neocon influence can be purged from the Republican Party and how far from the center the Democratic Party drifts.

Just a random rant to give you something to think about. Feel free to tell me I'm "full of it", you are probably right.