Just how Grim is it?

It's so grim in Iraq that after a mess tent in Mosul was bombed or mortared killing 24 even Bush had to take off his rose colored glasses long enough to admit that things weren't all that rosey. But that's the least of it. In a grim editorial the New York Times shares Grim Realities in Iraq.

This is not just pre-election mayhem. It is stark evidence that with a crucial election now less than six weeks away, America's effort to bring into being a new Iraqi government representing all major population groups and capable of defending itself and its citizens still has a very long way to go. Some 21 months after the American invasion, United States military forces remain essentially alone in battling what seems to be a growing insurgency, with no clear prospect of decisive success any time in the foreseeable future.

Washington has no significant international military partners besides Britain, and no Iraqi military support it can count on. The election that once looked as if it might produce a government with nationwide legitimacy increasingly threatens to intensify divisions between the groups that are expected to participate enthusiastically - the Shiites and Kurds - and an estranged and embattled Sunni community, which at this point appears likely to stand aloof.

There may still be time for Washington to try to salvage the election, but that would require paying much more serious attention to legitimate Sunni grievances and showing an openness to postponing the election for several months, if that had a reasonable chance of attracting broader Sunni participation. So far, Mr. Bush has strongly resisted such an approach. As weeks go by without discernible progress, hopes for a decent outcome get progressively harder to sustain.

Another made for US television election not only won't make the situation better but in fact could make it worse. If the formally powerful Sunnis feel left out they will continue to fight.

The Jan. 30 elections were supposed to usher in a legitimate national government and a broadly representative assembly to draw up a constitution acceptable to all elements of Iraq's fragmented population - secular and religious, Shiite and Sunni, Arab and Kurd. But things now appear headed toward a badly skewed result. Enthusiasm and participation seem high among Shiites and Kurds, who suffered greatly under Sunni minority rule and now thirst for self-government. But in predominantly Sunni areas, including Mosul, parts of Baghdad and most of central and western Iraq, there is a deep and growing alienation that threatens to depress electoral turnout and provides a large reservoir of support for the insurgency. Without an acceptable level of participation across Iraq, the elections will not be able to produce a legitimate government capable of standing on its own, mastering the insurgency and surviving without the indefinite presence of large numbers of American troops.

The chaos in Iraq can be expected to continue and quite possibly get worse. Even Bush admits that the Iraqi "Security" Forces are next to worthless. At this point more American troops would only create more targets and judging from the events of yesterday the insurgents are getting very good at target practice. The reality that not even the New York Times is willing to face up to is that Iraq is lost. Saddam is indeed gone and replaced by what was probably inevitable ethnic and religious violence.
A proper analogy to Iraq may be Yugoslavia. In the early 70's most people who understood the dynamics of what was then Yugoslavia knew that the only thing holding the diverse cultural and religious groups together was the iron hand of Tito and it was anticipated that when he was no longer part of the picture the area would fall into civil war and chaos. It should have been easy to see that the same situation existed in Iraq. Well it did and now we know. Some will argue that if the period right after the invasion had been handled properly this could have been avoided. I'm not sure if that's true but at this point it's academic. The country is going to go through years of turmoil and be something it wasn't before the invasion, a breeding ground and safe haven for jihadists. At this point American troops can only be a large part of the problem and not a solution. Oh yes, and they will be targets.