Painful Prognostication

Following up on a post by Ron at Running Scared concerning the future of our endeavors in Iraq, it's worth taking a look at the always eloquent James Wolcott. Today he brings us an analysis of a long, but chillingly vital piece by professor Martin Van Creveld of the Hewbrew University in Jerusalem. Based on far too much experience in desperate war sitatutions, the professor's long essay provides a diagnostic look at how we have handled the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and where, based on his experience, he sees it going from here.

"...[He] who fights against the weak--and the rag-tag Iraqi militias are very weak indeed--and loses, loses. He who fights against the weak and wins also loses. To kill an opponent who is much weaker than yourself is unnecessary and therefore cruel; to let that opponent kill you is unnecessary and therefore foolish. As Vietnam and countless other cases prove, no armed force however rich, however powerful, however advanced, and however well motivated is immune to this dilemma. The end result is always disintegration and defeat; if U.S. troops in Iraq have not yet started fragging their officers, the suicide rate among them is already exceptionally high. That is why the present adventure will almost certainly end as the previous one did. Namely, with the last U.S. troops fleeing the country while hanging on to their helicopters' skids."

Wolcott is forced to agree with him, and goes on to pontificate in his classic style.

So thick is the euphoria and triumphalism post November 2nd that I wonder if most of our media, never mind the bovine American public, have any inkling of how ghastily Iraq is going down the drain, and taking the American military with it. We've been so bombarded with "Failure is not an option" that few are willing to assert, as van Creveld and Lind do, that failure may not be an option but it damn well may be the outcome, and quicker than anyone contemplates.

Indeed. This is a lot of good reading to deliver to you, so I won't take up any more of your time with my blathering. Go give it a look.