Hollow Mandate?

Joe Gandelman working out of his weekend retreat at Dean's World and Melanie at The American Street picked up on this Lyn Nofziger op-ed in the NYT today where he discusses the trouble ahead for Bush.

The president and his people are deluding themselves if they think his victory signified general approval of his record, even within the Republican Party. It was fear of Senator John Kerry’s liberal record that brought many critical Republicans back into the Bush camp on Election Day even though they were decidedly unhappy with his record of deficit spending, his increases in the size and scope of the federal government, his lax immigration policies and his handling of postwar Iraq.

In reality, the president can thank Republican gains in the Senate and House for giving credibility to his claims of a mandate. The defeat of the Senate minority leader, Tom Daschle of South Dakota, was, next to Mr. Bush’s own win, the Republicans’ most significant victory. For all his soft-spoken ways and claims of wanting to work with Mr. Bush, Senator Daschle was a consistent, effective and highly partisan obstructionist who blocked not only legislation but also presidential appointments, primarily those of conservative federal judges.

With Mr. Daschle gone and with the addition of four Republican senators giving the party a 10-vote margin in the Senate, Mr. Bush will probably no longer have to contend with Democratic filibusters preventing the Senate from voting on his judicial appointees.

This is especially significant because during the next four years many expect three or perhaps four Supreme Court vacancies. It is a stretch, however, to think that the Senate will view the election results as a mandate for Mr. Bush to appoint whomever he wants to the courts. For one thing, the new Republican chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee will be the liberal and unpredictable Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. And while some may think that Senator Daschle’s loss will serve as a warning to Democrats hoping to defy the president, it seems clear that he lost not because of his record of opposition but because he lost touch with his constituents.

Finally, the increased Republican margin in the Senate doesn’t automatically assure the president of easy approval for his legislative proposals. He still must contend with half a dozen senators from the party’s liberal wing on social and tax issues, and with several small-government conservatives on others. Even in the House, where the Republican margin is greater and the discipline stronger, the president cannot expect a rubber stamp.

So it may not be smooth sailing for the Bush agenda.
Joe Gandelman also brings up this piece in The Boston Globe

But Bush's full-speed-ahead approach, despite his strong victory last Tuesday, has yet to take into account serious hurdles that may be beyond his control. The deficit is soaring. Some congressional Republicans are less eager to reorganize Social Security. The continuing combat in Iraq, not to mention the ongoing threat of terrorist attacks, threatens to consume much of the political oxygen he might need to push a bold agenda across Capitol Hill.

"The number one danger, of course, is that Iraq will implode," University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said. "If it ever really became critical, it could just take over his agenda. And if the inevitable Supreme Court appointment comes early in the term, that could also be the jolly green giant that ate his agenda, because it will unleash so many emotions on the right and the left."

At the same time, Bush has to contend with a daunting historical precedent: From Nixon to Reagan to Clinton, two-term presidents have often endured their darkest hours in the latter half of their tenure. Even before the election, the White House faced ongoing investigations into the energy firm Halliburton and the leaked name of undercover CIA operative Valerie Plame, and critics see an opportunity for more...

The investigations will continue and I think it is sad but likely that Iraq will implode with in the next few months eating up whatever political capitol Bush may have had. His apparent decision not to clean house at the DOD will only exacerbate this problem.