Elections in Afghanistan

In July we discussed how the election in Afghanistan tomorrow had more to do with elections in the US than democracy in Afghanistan. Not much has changed since then except things have gotten worse for the U.S. economy and Iraq has continued to plunge into chaos. Tucker Foehl gives us an update on the Afghan elections in Mother Jones; A Rush to the Polls in Afghanistan.

The mere fact of tomorrow's presidential elections in Afghanistan is cause for (subdued) celebration. Afghans are headed to the polls in the country's first-ever "democratic" election, and early indications are that an overwhelming percentage of eligible voters (conceivably, more than 100 percent!), including an impressive number of women, have registered.

And yet, notwithstanding the happy spin put on the vote by the Bush-Cheney campaign -- not to mention the echoing chorus of the mainstream media -- the validity of this election remains in question. For one thing, the basic physical security of voters is impossible to guarantee. Still, the Bush administration needs there to be elections in Afghanistan before Nov. 2, and so elections there will be -- ready or not.

Not much has changed since July, Afghanistan is still not ready but Bush needs the election even more.

Unfortunately, there are plenty of signs that Afghanistan is not quite ready. Consider: a new poll finds that 87 percent of Afghans believe women need to ask their husband's permission to vote, with not much separating the opinion of men and women.

And security remains a big problem:

According to Human Rights Watch, the situation is even more dire for women in southern Afghanistan:

According to official tallies, 41 percent of 10.5 million registered voters in Afghanistan are women. But closer examination reveals that multiple registrations have inflated voter registration figures. In some areas, fear of attacks has prevented mobile registration teams from going door-to-door, a critical means of reaching out to women in rural or conservative areas. These factors contributed to appallingly low female registration rates in the south: In Uruzgan province, 9 percent of registered voters are women; in Zabul province, the figure is 10 percent; in Helmand province, 16 percent in Helmand province.

But the administration really needs this election to give it something to spin for it's own election:

The presidential election in Afghanistan is being claimed by the Bush administration as vindication of its foreign policy choices. And it's to be hoped that, despite widespread fears, the elections go off peacefully and with some legitimacy. But, as the Economist points out is more than a matter of holding elections:

Whether Mr. Karzai, or whoever is elected president, will eventually calm the parts of Afghanistan beyond the control of Kabul remains to be seen. The first clue should appear in the line-up of the new government. A smaller, cleaner cabinet, and fewer drug-peddling provincial governors, would look good to many Afghans. The same line-up, mostly a rabble whose jobs have been secured by pre-election pacts, would not. Afghans know little about democracy. But, after their experiences of communism and Islamic fundamentalism, they know when they are being sold a dud.